Suaheli (Subject) / Guesstimate (Lesson)

<3

This lesson was created by Janaw55.

Learn lesson

This lesson is not released for learning.

back  |  next 1 / 1

• Problem-based Issue Tree to determine the root cause of the problem and understand the "why" the problem exists HYPOTHESIS on top Issue Trees are MECE to avoid inefficient dependencies between branches PARETO PRINCIPLE - Effectively target those issues first that matter the most  Get information in a STRUCURED fashion. SYNTHESIZE! find potential issues  break them into their component parts  Profits went down, Succees in something, Should they enter.. 
• MECE- Principle PROFITABILITY Be MECE in profitability cases to split costs and revenue in an issue tree SEGMENTATION MECE breakdown is dividing the population into subsets A group of people below 50 years and another group of 50 years and above is MECE. No person can be in both groups - mutually exclusive - but every person is in either one of them – collectively exhaustive Male - Female International - National Number of animals per specie: one - two - three Specie: tigers - others
• Strategy: How many people wear red in New York on a typical Monday? Step 1 – Clarification: How do you define “wear red”? - If any cloth on a person is red, he or she is considered as “wearing red”. If a person wearing red goes out more than once, do we count them again? – No! Does “New York” here refer to New York City or the state of New York? – New York City. Step 2 – Breaking down the problem: "OK, so here is how I would want to solve this problem. The number of people wearing red in NYC on a typical Monday will be determined by these following factors:" How many people are there in NY? What are the chances that people would wear red? This depends on two smaller factors: How many pieces of clothing people wear and their color preference. Step 3 – Solving each piece: Work with the interviewer to estimate each of those elements and come up with the answer. Population: approximately 20 million Probability: 5% staying at home, 70% going out once, 25% going out twice. Those staying at home have 2 pieces of clothing, those going out once have 5 pieces, and those going out twice will, therefore, have 10 pieces.There is no specific preference on color. Step 4 – Consolidating: Let’s analyze the number of people wearing red from each group. 1. Staying at home: 1,000,000 * 2 * 1/10 = 200,000. 1,000,000 people have 2 pieces of clothing. Chance of having red in each piece: 1/10 (7 colors + gray + black + white) 2. Going out once: 14,000,000 * 5 * 1/20 = 3,500,000. 14,000,000 people have 5 pieces of clothing. Chance of having red in each piece: 1/20 (on Monday, most of these people go to work, thus black and white will be the main colors they wear) 3. Going out twice: 5,000,000 * 10 * 7.5% = 3,750,000. 5,000,000 people have 10 pieces of clothing. Chance of having red in each piece: 7.5% (the first trip is probably to work: 1/20; the second trip is the casual trip: 1/10) So in total: there are about 7.5 million people in NYC wearing red on a typical Monday.
• Daten Fläche 270 Welt-Staaten Erdoberfläche: 500 Mio km2 Landfläche: 150 Mio km2 Russland: 17 Mio Kanada: 10 Mio USA: 10 Mio China: 10 Mio EU: 4 Mio Frankreich: 0.5 Mio 
• Data on Germany Fläche Deutschland: 350 000 km2 NS - 900 kmWO- 600 km Autobahnnetz: 13 000 km2 Schienennetz: 40000 km2 Einwohnerzahl: 80 Mio Kinder: 10 MioErwachsen: 50 MioRentner: 20 MioNicht Erwerbstätig 40 MioGeburten= 0.7 Mio  Anzahl Haushalte = 40 Mio  Internetzugang = 32 Mio 
• How many gas stations are there in the US? (Population question) BOTTOM UP! I live in a town with a population of 30,000. There are six gas stations serving our town (not really, but six divides nicely into 30). Therefore, I’ll assume that each gas station serves about 5,000 customers. If the population of the US is 300 million, I’ll just divide 300 million by 5,000 and get 60,000 gas stations in the US.
• How many garden hoses were sold in the US last year? (Household question) The population of the US is 300 million people. The average US household is made up of 3 people, so we are talking about 100 million households. (You always want to work with 100 million households in the US and 200 million in Europe.) I’m going to estimate that 50 percent of the households are either suburban or rural. That makes 50 million households. I’ll also assume that 20 percent of those homes are apartments or condos. That narrows us down to 40 million houses that most likely use a garden hose. Garden hoses are relatively inexpensive, so people are likely to have a hose in the front and a hose in the backyard. That makes 80 million hoses. I want to add in another 10 million hoses, which can be found in nurseries, zoos, and other outdoor facilities. Most of those businesses have at least two hoses. We are now up to 90 million garden hoses. Hoses aren’t replaced every year. I’d say that they are replaced every 3 years unless they are run over by a lawn mower or run into the business end of a dog’s tooth. So we take 90 million hoses,
• Gäste Party Anzahl Gäste: Zusagen - Tatsächlich kommen - Begleitung - Fahren - Nicht Fahren Frauen - Männer Viel Trinker - Wenig Trinker Geschenke Alkohol IN LITERN: Wein pro Kopf, Bier pro Kopf, Saft pro Kopf, -> Liter auf Flaschen runter rechnen
• Life-Expectacy Divide the total number by life expectancy to get to the estimated number per year
• How many....would fit in .... ? Volume of something / Volume of something else
• Volumen Kegel 1/3 * ∏ *  r2 * h
• Volumen Zylinder  ∏ *  r2 * h
• Volumen Kreis 4/3 * ∏ *  r3
• Schiefer Turm von Pisa Höhe 60m
• Empire State Building 350m
• Big Ben Höhe 100m
• Eiffelturm Höhe 300m
• Gewicht Eiffelturm 10.000 t
• Stromkosten 50 Cent / kwH

back  |  next 1 / 1