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Technologie und Innovationsmanagement (Subject) / Technology tools II (Lesson)

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• Limitations of technology roadmapping Technology Roadmapping is possible, if: -> R&D areas are established -> competition is well understood and technology and R&D activities are developed -> clear definitions of future technology are possible
• objectives of scenarios - develop different but consistent and plausible pictures of the future - describe quantitative and qualitative scenarios - deal with uncertainty about future developments, spot opportunities and mininalize risks - overcome traditional boundaries of thinking regarding (bzgl.) several key aspects and to open the field for opportunities
• Portfolio management helps the firm to... ...align (ausrichten) the technology resource base with the corporate strategy ...show the strategic alignment and interaction between projects
• quantitative analysis - quantitative analysis is a basic tool to asses (beurteilen) profitability of innovation and technology development projects - during the lifecycle Cash Inflows (sales) and Cash Outflows (spendings) occur - successful projects are profitable, because they generate more cumulative In- than Outflows
• questions for quantitative analysis 1. will the project be profitable enough to pay back the initial investment? 2. what if our financial projections are wrong? 3. what is the worst case for breakeven? 4. is it worth it to invest in more expensive R&D, design...
• Reasons to invest into technology with negative NPV - development of core competencies - development of products for lead users (undeveloped markets) - competitive response - dynamic economic environment
• scenario creation - principle procedure 1. identify influence factors 2. analyze the interconnections, find out the key factors 3. describe development opportunities 4. find consistent future patterns 5. describe scenarios
• steps of economic analysis 1. build a base-case financial model 2. perform a sensitivity analysis to understand the relationships between financial success and the key assumptions (Annahmen) and variables of the model 3. use the sensitivity analysis to understand project trade-offs 4. consider (erwägen) the influence of the qualitative factors on project success
• Technology mature 1. Emerging Technology -> technologies with the potential to change the basis of competition but yet to be embodied in a product or process 2. Pacemaking Technology -> technologies that are most critical to future competitive success, bc they will provide product or process differentiation 3. Key Technology -> technologies that are currently critical to competitive success, bc they provide product or process differentiation 4. Base Technology -> technologies that are essential for efficient design, development, manufacture and distribution of products but offer little potential for competitive advantage
• Typical portfolio model - Cluster with 9 squares - the first 3 squares on the left: disinvestment strategy - 3 squares in the middle: quetion marks - 3 squares on the top right: investement strategy => a portfolio contains 2 dimensions, in which the analyzed objects can be positioned. the portfolio offers assistance for strategic decisions
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• what happens without a portfolio management? 1. a strong reluctance (Widerwille) to kill projects 2. Poor Go/Kill & Project selection decisions 3. the wrong projects are selected 4. strategic criteria are missing

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