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Technologie und Innovationsmanagement (Subject) / technology lifecycles (Lesson)

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• core idea behind technology cycles -> technology develops themselves seemingly in cycles -> the development progress of a technology regularities occur that are similar to biological birth, grow and degeneration processes -> the development of a technology is influenced by the development of other technologies
• technology life cycle model of Ford and Ryan - 6 phases y-axis: Degree of Technology Diffusion (DTD) x-axis: time 1. technology development (DTD = 0) 2. Developement to application maturity (DTD=0) 3. start of application (slowly increasing DTD) 4. application growth (rapidly increasing DTD) 5. technology maturity (increasing DTD, peak of DTD) 6. technology degeneration (decreasing DTD)
• technology life cylce model of Arthur D. Little - 4 phases - y-axis: Degree of leveraging competetive potential (DLCP) - x-axis: time 1. Emergence: Pacemaker-Technology (slowly increasing DLCP) 2. Growth: Key-Technology (faster increasing DLCP) 3. Maturity: Base-Technology (increasing DCLP) 4. Degeneration: Driven Out-Technology (increasing DCLP)
• problems of technology life cycle models - definition and differentiation of technologies - selection of appropriate parameters for modeling technology development - analysis of influencing factors of the pattern of the curve
• S-Curve Concept by McKinsey Descripes the technology performance according to the cumulated R&D expenditures (Ausgaben) -> There are 2 curves, shaped like a "S" -> the first curve descripes an established technology, which potentials are limited -> the second curve descripes the new technology, which can substitute the established technology (the second curve starts a bit below the end of the first curve)
• Lock-In-Efffect A company is "locked in" a specific technology. A change towards another technology is possible, but not without enormous costs. Lock-In-Cycle: 1. A company investes in one technology (selection) 2. It continues to invest in this technology (Sampling) 3. A change from one technology to another complementary or even superior technology causes very high switching costs (Entrenchment) 4. A switch wont be conducted (Lock In)
• Sailing ship effect - similar to the S-Curve concept by McKinsey -> acceleration of innovation in an old technology as a response to the threat of the development of a new technology -> companies tend to defense their used technologies, instead of capitalize the opportunities offered by the emergence (Entstehung) of a superior new technology -> Example: sailing ships and steam ships

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