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2 Marketing (Fach) / STRATEGY (Lektion)

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  • General Sales decomposition Sales = Market Share x Category Sales (volume vs. value) Sales / 100 HHs = Penetration x Purchases per buyer Penetration = # Household in Country x % of HHs buying the brand at least once PPB = # purchase occasions per buyer x # packs per purchase x price per pack (or kg)
  • Product-centric sales decomposition Sales = Trial Sales + Repeat Sales  Sales = First Purchase + Replacement Purchases Disadvantages Budget Allocation Competition around Budget Lost Synergies Valuation of individual customers (No Database)
  • Marketing takes a customer-centric approach to sales Sales = Sales to new customers + sales to existing customers Practitioners have moved from a product-centric, transaction focused view of marketing toward one that is more customer-centric and relationship oriented in nature.  A customer centric firm takes the view that there are 3 Key drivers of (organic) growth and overall profitability Customer acquisition Customer retention Customer development  We aquire, retain and develop customers by offering superior value relative to the competition
  • Definition Customer Lifetime Value The present value of future cash flows associated with the customer  Customers are (intangible) assets that generate cash flow today and in future periods Customers are primary source of firm's revenues and CF Customers generate CF if they believe products of firm are better than products of competitor
  • 1 - How to grow CLV CLV = ∑ m • rt/ (1+i)t - AC Simple Formula: CLV = m (r/1+i-r) Reduce AC Increase retention Increase margin Impact on firm value: Retention rate - 5% improvement in firm value  Margin - 1.1% improvement in firm value Discount Rate -0.9 % improvement in firm value Acquisition Cost - 0.1 % improvement in firm value
  • Issues in computing CLV Dont blindly use formula: write out the "time line"  Monthly vs. quarterlu vs. annual retention rate  Can we assume a constant retention rate? What about settings where there is no contract with the customer?
  • The Marketing Strategy Formulation Process ANALYSIS: 5Cs DECISIONS (Aspiration): What value for whom? STP ACTIONS: 4Ps How to create value? How to capture some of that value created? OUTCOMES: Customer measurement - Acquisition / Retention / Buy Rate Sales measurement - Profits / Brand / Position
  • 1.1 Five C's Customers: DMU + DMP Define DMU (Initiator, Influencer, Approver, Gatekeeper, User, Buyer) Benefits saught, Values & Goals, Jobs to be Done DMP: High-Involvement / Low Involvement Segments based on Frequency Company:  Forefront Tech Masses of User Data Low Cost Base Scalable Business Model Weakness: Employment Model, Scandals Collaborator: Drivers, Payment Processors, Map API Providers, Media, Car Manufacturers, Insurance Companies, Paypal, Crowdfunding?, Influencers? Competitor: 3 Competitors, Pro & Con Context: Context shapes the possible Climate Legal issues Ratings world, Technology
  • -1 Benefits Contractual Settings Rewards people with deep insights into customers  Customer Segments with P&L organisational Implementation: New Solution Development, Customer Experience Management
  • The Marketing Process Marketing Strategy Formation Marketing Planning PAB Programming, Allocation, Budgeting Implementation MA Monitoring, Auditing RA Research, Analysis
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  • - How to increase Market Share Market Share = (Sales / 100 HHs) =  Penetration x PPB When a brand grows: it recruits many light buyers who become heavy enough to buy at least once (show up in penetration metric existing buyers also buy more frequently FMCG: PPB does not move much, however, major differences in PENETRATION (observed across product categories, time (1950s–current), and geographies) Implication: Market Share growth over time comes from more Customers; NOT higher LoyaltyMarket Share is more sensitive to Penetration: 160 cases Δ Average Penetration Increase 25% Δ Average PPB Increase 10%
  • - Brand Sales Growth: Double Jeopardy Smaller brands get hit twice; their sales are lower because they have fewer buyers who buy less often When a brand grows: a) it recruits many light buyers who become heavy enough to buy at least once (show up in penetration metric); b) existing buyers also buy more frequently In sum, the average rate of buying doesn’t change that much
  • - Brand Sales Growth: J-shaped Purchase Distribution Majority of buyers buy less than the average PPB; Concentration in purchasing is rather 50/20 Growing PPB is not easy; Grow Penetration: reach out to light buyers in order to maintain the sales of a product because a) there are lots of them, and b) they can easily forget about you because they buy so infrequently

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