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Biases in decision making

Diese Lektion wurde von Juma erstellt.

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  • 12 Types of bias in decision making Search for supportive evidence Inconsistency Conservativism Recency Availability Anchoring Illusory correlations Selective perception Regression effects Attribution of success and failure Opimism, wishwul ...
  • Search for supportive evidence Willingness to gather facts which lead toward certain conclusions and to disregard other facts which threaten them  
  • Inconsistency Inability to apply the same decision criteria in similar situations
  • Conservativism Failure to change (or changing slowly) one’s own mind in light of new information/evidence
  • Recency The most recent events dominate those in the less recent past, which are downgraded or ignored
  • Availability Reliance upon specific events easily recalled from memory, to the exclusion of other pertinent information
  • Anchoring Predictions are unduly influenced by initial information which is given more weight in the forecasting process  
  • Illusory correlations Belief that patterns are evident and/or two variables are causally related when they are not
  • Selective perception People tend to see problems in terms of their own background and experience
  • Regression effects Persistent increases in some phenomenon might be due to random reasons which, if true, would raise the chance of a subsequent decrease. Alternatively, persistent decreases might raise the chances of ...
  • Attribution of success and failure Success is attributed to one’s skills while failure to bad luck  or someone else’s error  This inhibits learning as it does not allow recognition of one’s mistakes.  
  • Optimism, wishful thinking People’s preferences for future outcomes affect their forecasts of such outcomes.
  • Underestimating uncertainty Excessive optimism, illusory correlation, and the need to reduce anxiety result in underestimating future uncertainty